Thursday, August 7, 2008

VP Buzz: Romney's GOP Votes

In my opinion, Romney makes the best choice for McCain VP for the simple reason that Romney would make the best President. 

But that's just my opinion.  Since we're talking about the GOP's nominee, perhaps it would be useful to look at how Romney did in the GOP primary.

There are six states Real Clear Politics says are "battleground states".  These are Colorado, Virginia, Missouri, Michigan, Ohio and Florida.  Over 4.5 million GOP votes were cast in those states.  Four states voted prior to Romney's gracious exit on February 7th. 

  Romney prepares to stand aside

The two after the CPAC speech, Ohio and Virginia, probably would have split between Romney and McCain had Romney stayed in.  Nevertheless, lets just look at the actual vote totals.

So, how did Romney do?  Here's the final Washington Post numbers:

Colorado - Feb 5 (competitive):

Mitt Romney 33,288 59%
John McCain 10,621 19%
Mike Huckabee 7,266 13%
Ron Paul 4,670 8%


Virginia Feb 12 (non-competitive):

John McCain 244,135 50%
Mike Huckabee 198,247 41%
Ron Paul 22,066 5%
Mitt Romney 17,532 4%


Missouri Feb 5 (competitive):

John McCain 194,304 33%
Mike Huckabee 185,627 32%
Mitt Romney 172,564 29%
Ron Paul 26,445 4%


Michigan - Feb 5 (competitive):

Mitt Romney 337,847 39%
John McCain 257,521 30%
Mike Huckabee 139,699 16%
Ron Paul 54,434 6%


Ohio - Feb 12 (non-competitive):

John McCain 636,256 60%
Mike Huckabee 325,581 31%
Ron Paul 49,027 5%
Mitt Romney 34,978 3%


Florida - Jan 29 (competitive):

John McCain 693,508 36%
Mitt Romney 598,188 31%
Rudy Giuliani 281,781 15%
Mike Huckabee 259,735 13%


Total for CO, VA, MO, MI, OH & FL:

John McCain 2,036,345 45%
Mitt Romney 1,193,397 26%
Rudy Giuliani 1,116,155 24%
Mike Huckabee 156,642 3%

So, even though he was not running in two of the races, Romney still ended up with almost 1.2 million votes for those six states, second only to McCain.  Romney won two of the contests, CO & MI, and narrowly lost FL, three states considered critical to McCain's general election strategy.

As I've mentioned in another article, VP Buzz:  McCain needs Romney, McCain lost big time to Romney in 5 of 10 states with less than 5% margin of victory for Bush in ‘04: IA, NV, MI, MN & CO.  Net, net - Romney on the ticket may add 47 to 61 electors.  Bush beat Kerry by only 34 electors.

Of course, none of the other potential suitors, Jindal, Pawlenty, Palin, Crist or Cantor, felt strong enough, as candidates, to run in the 2008 primary.  They are each doing great things for the GOP and the country in their current roles.  However, we have no idea what they bring to the table, except their own states. 

I still say, Romney 4 VP = Win 4 McCain.

campaign picture

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